Letter: People in Important Positions Must Use Statistics & Data Carefully
Community member David Clark, an independent research consultant, shares examples of City officials playing fast and loose with statistical figures.
LETTER TO THE EDITOR
We have a critical thinking and basic statistical illiteracy skills crisis. What is worrying is that people in important positions are making these errors.
Let me explain.
Just a few days ago, I noticed a job posting for a position with the Owen Sound Police Services (Inspector), wherein was the following: “Owen Sound, which has a population of 22,000 residents, a number that doubles during the day as people commute in for work and that number grows even more during the summer as tourists visit the area… [emphasis added]”
This boldly asserts that Owen Sound grows to a population of 44,000 people daily, and even more during tourist season. Does this seem reasonable? Forty-four thousand people! Each day? Maybe we can assume a few hundred people might invade the city each day in the summer for a few hours.
Someone (in an important position, I assume) did not think this through, and, interestingly, the statistics are available to calculate the actual numbers. This is something I did a few years back after someone on Council suggested that a lot of people come to the city for work, don't pay taxes here, and the city has to provide services to these people.
I won't dwell on the details of the statistics and calculations, but here is the bottom line: About 69% of those employed who live in the city work in the city, and about 31% commute out of the city for work elsewhere.
Further analysis finds that each day, about 57% of the workforce commutes in, which is about 6,000 or so people, NOT 22,000. (Source: Statistics Canada)
There are no precise tourism statistics specific to the city, as these are collected at the provincial and county levels.
The job posting is vague enough, with “even more during the tourist season,” but past analyses show that most tourists to Grey County are visiting family and friends, attending sporting events, and staying in private homes.
We are not overwhelmed with tourists, except for a few special events.
Here is another example. A few years back, Mayor Ian Boddy promised that Owen Sound would grow to 30,000 people by 2030 (I think it was positioned as 30 by 30). At that time, the city's population was lower than it had been in 2001.
Does a growth of almost 9,000 people over twelve years seem reasonable, given past trends of population decline?
Well, again, I did an analysis of the likelihood of this happening. (Note: Optimism and wishful thinking are not analytic tools, but rather political doublespeak.)
Although past trends are not a guarantee of future trends (as my financial adviser reminds me), statistical trend analysis provides a reasonable overall view of what is likely.
Census Canada data are not disputable; they are hard data. The following is an analysis from the Ontario Ministry of Finance:
“Projections for the natural increase in population by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (OMF) do not bode well for this area.
Bruce is expected to have positive natural growth in 2017-2018 and shift to negative by 2030-2031.
Grey is projected to have a negative natural increase in both 2017-2018 and 2040-2041.”
Owen Sound saw a census decline of 1.6% from 2011 to 2016 and an increase of 1.4% from 2016 to 2021.
Given the census data and OMF projections, I suggest that Owen Sound might reach a population range of 22,000 to 24,000 by 2030. But, I acknowledge that the 2026 census may show a trend change; we won't know until early 2027 when preliminary data are released.
If Owen Sound did reach 30,000 by 2030, approximately 350 housing units per year would need to be built, starting the year the mayor made his pronouncement (or 0.9 units per day), with NO loss of existing units.
The population would need to grow by about 68 people per month or 2.7 per day. And, of course, growth in jobs is needed—and preferably not the part-time, minimum-wage jobs for which Owen Sound is infamous.
We need to teach critical thinking, and, at least at a basic level, statistical literacy to youth who one day may be in leadership positions. I believe the above examples indicate this is lacking in, unfortunately, positions of influence and decision-making.
David Clark
Independent Research Consultant
MA, BES, BA(Honours), MAd(Diploma)
Owen Sound
Letters to the Editor do not necessarily reflect the opinions or beliefs of The Owen Sound Current and its editor or publisher.
Both my husband Don and I were trained in statistical analysis. Like the writer, we have been shocked over the years at the lack of even basic analytic skills by those making decisions locally. Even so-called experts hired by the City have been prone to make basic errors in the direction of what those who hired them wanted to hear.
Learning what is common sense in analysis is not hard. Officials should have to take basic training in reading results. It should be taught in the schools.
A simple fact is that ALL projections are stated in terms of the probability of their being true. In other words, they need to be looked at with the trained and sceptical eye of a David Clark.
Thankyou. Ive always wondered where all the extra 22 000 people are!