Letter: Myth-staken Belief in Owen Sound’s Burgeoning Population Growth
Independent researcher and reader David Clark examines census data and migration trends to challenge claims about rapid population growth in Owen Sound.
LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Dear Editor,
“…[I]f a person is strongly predisposed to believe in a supernatural event, often little can be done to dissuade him (sic)”
- Paul Kurtz, The Transcendental Temptation, p.472
This opinion piece, I offer, as a companion to David McLeish’s excellent analysis of the supposed recent explosive growth of Owen Sound’s population, and predicted high, continued growth as recently espoused by the mayor.
McLeish’s data-driven, evidence-based analysis, challenging the mayor’s position, warms the statistical heart of anyone who cares about, and understands, the importance of having a critical (and skeptical) eye regarding the “facts.”
It challenges the assumption suggested by a research company, and proffered (maybe pontificated) by the mayor, that Owen Sound’s population “could be as high as 24,190” right now, or 2,578 more than the last census a mere five years ago.
In this essay, I briefly explore factors affecting Owen Sound’s population growth including mobility and immigration. The discussions and graphs that follow are based on census-to-census population counts and rates which account for rates of births, deaths, immigration (international), and mobility (internal to Canada).
I find it astonishing is that the mayor states, referencing a commissioned report, that the City’s population could have grown 11.9% in 4 years. Recall that the mayor also stated some years back that his goal was for the City to grow to 30,000 people by 2030 (30 by 30). There was no plan released, just a faith-based prophecy.
The growth rate suggested in the report could be 7.7% over the next five years, indicating a population of 26,053 by 2030. This is still a shortfall of 3,947 (15.1%) to reach 30,000 by 2030.
McLeish’s article challenges this claim of significant growth with his statistical analysis and clearly illustrates how the “boomer replacement” is unlikely to happen from within. And if the boom replacement does not happen, then 30 by 30 won’t, either.
I agree with his position that many of the youth leave this area for better jobs or just do not return after college and university. I have family for whom this is the case and after college, I left a small town due to a lack of good jobs, and thusly landed in Owen Sound (a good employment decision at that time - certainly not now).
The trend over the years has been that Owen Sound has not been able to attract people from “away” in significant numbers, nor has it been able to halt the outflow.
The decline/stagnation shows up first in the 1996 census, which reported a population loss of 1.3% from the 1991 census. By 2021, that 25 years had an uneventful net gain of 1.7% to report.
An opinion piece I wrote in 2019, “Why Owen Sound will not reach 30K by 2030: the math”, focused on the likelihood of reaching (or not) 30,000 by 2030. My analysis projected a population of between 22,100 and 22,600 for 2030.
To reach 30,000, Owen Sound would need to attract (beginning in fall 2017/winter 2018) a total of 7,984 people or 665 annually or 1.8 people every day! This is an increase of about 40% from the 2016 census.
Or, the birth rate would have to climb higher than the provincial mean — or we would need to stop dying.
In addition, about 3,900 housing units of varying types would need to be built. The growth rate to 2030 would need to average 1.9% annually (2016 to 2030) to reach 30,000. This is unlikely to happen.
Note above I stated that in 25 years, the growth for the entire period was only 1.7%. Between 2011 and 2016, Owen Sound experienced negative growth, as McLeish points out. He has taken his analysis further, projecting to 2051, and determined that Owen Sound’s population would be between 19,000 and 20,000.
My analysis uses a different methodology than McLeish’s. He focused on analysis of the various growth rates within age cohorts, whereas I extend past trends of the total population as per census data into the future using statistical trending.
As such, I have slightly different results, although they support his finding that Owen Sound’s “growth” will be negligible and, in fact, is likely to decrease. My projections to 2051 indicate a population of between 22,000 and 23,000 (See graph below).
Both methods project Owen Sound is likely to stagnate in the foreseeable future. Combining our 2050 projections, the 2050 population might be between 19,000 and 23,000.
The following graph shows Owen Sound’s actual census population and two projections, or trend lines. Linear (straight-line) and logistic trend lines are statistical methods of fitting lines that, well, are the “best fits” through the data points.
A logistic trend line tweaks the linear line to account for the bumpiness of ups and downs of population changes, to soften the extremes.
Historically, between 1981 to 2021, Owen Sound had a significantly lower population growth than Grey and Bruce, with Owen Sound at 8.7% (net gain 1,733), Grey at 36.7%, (27,081), and Bruce at 22.3% (13,376).
Owen Sound is well below local rates and Ontario’s at 64.9%.
To enhance our understanding of external factors to growth, we will look at mobility, specifically in-migration.
Census data at the community level, such as Owen Sound, accounts for the mobility of people currently living in the census unit, not ex-Owen Sounders who had moved elsewhere. Understanding mobility will help with the question, “Where are people likely to come from?”
Mobility rates count people who are new to a community and ask where they moved from, such as somewhere else in Ontario or other provinces or internationally. The data are for one- and five-year periods.
Mobility also counts internal movement; that is, people moving from one dwelling unit to another in the same community. This is helpful for understanding housing instability, a topic for another essay.
The majority of Owen Sound’s in-migration is from elsewhere in Ontario. As you read, keep in mind that any numbers for Owen Sound are also included in those of Grey County, but are separated out because the focus is Owen Sound.
Owen Sound might receive new residents from elsewhere, such as local municipalities, Toronto, or Kitchener, etc. The same holds for Bruce and Grey, that in-migrants come from elsewhere in Ontario (not other provinces).
The 2021 census shows that the percentage of the population that had moved, one-year prior, from elsewhere in Ontario to Owen Sound (intraprovincial) was at 4.4%; Grey was 6.4%, Bruce was 5.5%, and Ontario was 3.7%. Keep in mind that these moves could be from anywhere in Ontario, including its immediate neighbouring communities.
A deeper dive is necessary to understand the “why” and “from where” of this movement. For example, as the population ages people might simply be moving “into town” to be closer to their medical team, various services, ease of getting around, and down-sizing.
The 1-year intraprovincial in-migration rate (from within Ontario) for Owen Sound is 4.4%, 6.4% (Grey), and 5.5% (Bruce).
The average rate for Ontario is 3.7%. The 5-year rate is 21.9% for Owen Sound, 27.4% for Grey, and 22.9% for Bruce. For reference, Ontario is 14.5%. These percentages represent the current percentage of the population that had moved into a census division, one and five years prior to the 2021 census. These rates are not growth rates.
Bruce has a very slight advantage over Owen Sound and Grey with interprovincial migration (from other provinces) according to the 1- and 5-years rates. Interprovincial migrations (5-year period) is not a significant source of growth, with rates of 1.1% for Owen Sound, 0.8% for Grey, and 0.4% for Bruce. For reference, Ontario’s rate was 0.4%.
External migration (from outside of Canada) somewhat mirrors the interprovincial rate. Compared with Ontario’s rate, international migrants are a very small source for population increase in Owen Sound, Grey and Bruce. Five-year rates were Owen Sound at 1.4%, Grey at 0.8%, and Bruce at 1.0%. Ontario was 5.5%.
The census also captured the percentage of the population identified as “external migrants”, those who came from other countries (separated out as all people pre-1979 and ten-year groupings from 1980 to 2021).
Owen Sound’s 2021 immigrant population accounted for 7.9% of its total population. Bruce and Grey are like Owen Sound at 7.6% and 8.6%, respectively.
Compare this with Ontario’s share at 30.0%. These numbers suggest, especially when compared to Ontario, that this area is not an immigration destination and should not be counted on as a growth factor, especially given recent reduced federal immigrant target numbers, down 21.3% from 2024. The new cut is to last through 2028.
This is by way of stating that international migration will not be the growth saviour for Owen Sound. (See graph below.)
Canadian colleges and universities have found out the hard way, that assuming a continuation of previous immigration rates, specifically worker and student visas, is not good strategy. This misguided strategy has hit their bottom lines, significantly.
Only three communities in Grey-Bruce have shown such high five-year increases (between 2016 and 2021) in recent years, and those have been in high-growth areas: Saugeen Shores, 16.0%; Blue Mountains, 33.7%; and Southgate, 18.5%.
All others, including our immediate neighbours, had single digit increases between 2016 to 2021.
Between 2001 and 2021 Owen Sound had the second lowest growth rate after South Bruce and in absolute numerical terms the third lowest (181), just above Brockton (126) and South Bruce (-183).
Further, the suggested growth rate of, per the report, 7.7% over the next five years, indicating a population of 26,053 by 2030. This is a shortfall of 3,947 (15.1%) to reach 30,000 by 2030.
The following graph shows the percentage change in population, census to census, over twenty-one years. The mean growth rate was 15.8% with a median of 12.7; Owen Sound’s was 0.8%. The black, dashed line is Owen Sound.
Final comments
In an evidence-based discussion, there is nothing to suggest that Owen Sound’s population is “growing” at any appreciable rate, and very little data to support long-term growth.
McLeish stated in his editorial that Owen Sound will decline in population by 2050. I suggest a similar situation unfolding. Neither of us used “gut feeling” type forecasting…we used actual data and ran statistical analyses and modelling.
Of course, I could be wrong. We will have to wait until early 2027 for the new census data for proof, or rejection of, “miracle growth.”
David I.M. Clark
MA, B.ES, BA(Hon), MAd (diploma)
Independent Researcher
Letters to the Editor do not necessarily reflect the opinions or beliefs of The Owen Sound Current and its editor or publisher.
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Thank you for this thoughtful research. Historically, Owen Sound leaders and planning staff have put their faith in wildly incorrect data projections provided by developers. They used 'hopeful feelings' rather than basic math in support of east side retail expansion, and to guide planning decisions. My experience is that accurate projections were not wanted - my research back in 2010 went straight into Community Planner Pam Coulter's garbage can. Good math does not seem to be convincing... more voices sharing good math might be convincing.