Letter: Diverging Perspectives on the State of Owen Sound, In Response to Mayor Boddy’s Update
David McLeish offers a data-driven response to Mayor Ian Boddy’s year-end message, challenging the upbeat assessment with a look at population trends, poverty data, and what the numbers really show.
LETTER TO THE EDITOR
It always amazes me how two people, looking at ostensibly the same thing, can see it in vastly different ways. In this case, I am talking about the Mayor’s Year-End Update (presented at the Council Meeting on December 15, 2025) in which he asserts, “Everything that we have been working on seems to have started to come together in 2025.”
Obviously, Mayor Boddy and I are using different metrics. The Mayor’s focus is on the value of construction, rental developments, a new grocery store, Environics Analytics’ estimate that the city’s current population could be as high as 24,190, and their prediction that it could increase by a further 7.7 per cent over the next five years.
It seems that 30,000 by 2030 is still possible. Of course, this is all attributed to planning by council.
Perhaps I am caught in some sort of time loop. David Clark has challenged the mayor’s assertions previously, sadly, seemingly to no avail:
On 26 August 2019: Why Owen Sound will not reach 30K by 2030: the math, Owen Sound Hub. Mr. Clark asked if 30,000 was a reasonable projection, or even possible? He concluded that it was “very unlikely.”
On 21 January 2021: Did Owen Sound really have a “very good year?” Owen Sound Hub. Mr. Clark suggested that “it is bizarre that the mayor could, in his mind, and as key representative of the residents of Owen Sound, separate the significant impact of COVID-19 had on residents and state it was “a pretty good year” for Owen Sound.”
On 04 August 2022: Has Owen Sound “turned the corner” in its population growth? Owen Sound Hub Mr. Clark again challenged a quote attributed to the mayor: “Following ten years of decline, the data shows we have turned the corner with an increase in the past five years....the City is trending in the right direction.”
His response bears repeating as it appears to have not been heeded. Clark noted that the Mayor’s comment:
“…discloses a common error made by many people who do not (truly) understand statistics, the meaning of “trends”, and limitations of using short time frames.”
As in 2019, Mr. Clark suggested “…that Owen Sound has not ‘turned the corner’ on positive population growth, at least not that one can confidently forecast based on a single event.”
“It is not responsible to predict such an event given such a short five-year time-frame, and doing so is a mockery of good statistical analysis and research standards,” he added, concluding, “I guess it is good politics, though.”
So, here we are again in 2026, pondering where we can get a pair of Mayor Boddy’s rose-coloured glasses.
While I can appreciate the metrics he uses, my perspective differs substantially. I suggest that other metrics warrant consideration.
Despite the Mayor’s previous predictions, Owen Sound’s population has remained flatlined since 1991. His reference to Environics Analytics’ estimate that the current population is 24,190, an increase of 2,578 over 2021, is startling. I have also been interested in this matter, so I looked into the data.
The chart below, based on Census Canada data, shows the number of Owen Sound citizens in 18 age categories (0 to 4 years, 5 to 9 years, etc.) from the six most recent censuses.
It clearly shows the progression of the “baby boomer” generation (born between 1946 and 1964, aged 35 to 49 in 1996) as they’ve aged. This cohort is very distinct, moving like a wave through the Censuses every 5 years.
Perhaps more importantly, there is a paucity of ‘strong year-classes’ coming up to replace the Boomers as they age. In both 2001 and 2006, 15- to 19-year-olds had relatively strong cohorts, but by 2021, when these groups would have been 35- to 39-year-olds and 30- to 34-year-olds, respectively, their share of the population had diminished. This suggests emigration.
This prompted me to create a very rudimentary age-structured population model using the Census data. It provides a forecast of the City’s population as we move into the future.
In keeping with the City’s Vision 2050, I ran the model to 2051. Obviously, such models necessitate a number of assumptions, but given the pattern already illustrated by the Census data and the fact that these changes were simply extended forward in time, I’m reasonably confident that the model is sufficiently parsimonious to be reliable.
The model projects that the population will remain relatively stable until 2031. It will then decline slightly into 2036 and 2041, after which the rate of decline will increase sharply into 2046.
By 2051, the model predicts that Owen Sound’s population will have declined by 10.5% to 19,358, as the Baby Boomers shuffle off this mortal coil.
I suspect that the population may drop further still and then equilibrate at a new level, but I will await the results of the 2026 Census before extending the model further in time.
Since the model forecasts the age structure of the population into the future, we can also see how many people there will be in the various age categories. The chart above illustrates the age composition of Owen Sound in 1996 and 2021 (based on actual Census data) and in 2051 based on the model’s output.
The circles mark the large number of people aged 34 to 39 years in 1996, then again 35 years later, when they appear as 60 to 64 year olds in 2021.
The final circle on the far right shows the Boomers reaching 90 years and ageing out of the population. There is no evidence of a younger cohort anywhere near as large as the Boomers in 2021, 2016, 2011, etc.
I certainly hope that I am wrong. Perhaps someone with greater modelling skills could develop a more rigorous model for us, but at this time, I see no signs that the population will grow.
Other metrics that the Mayor doesn’t consider are described below.
In particular, I suggest that the tragic increase in the number of people in our community suffering from food insecurity is worthy of the Mayor’s mention.
The chart below illustrates the number of meals served by OSHaRE since 2017 (no data was available for 2018).
Note that the number for 2025 is based on an estimate from October 2025. These data suggest that about 1,000 people per day relied on OSHaRE for food in 2025.
In case you are counting, that is an increase of over 176,000 meals since 2022, when the current council was elected. At the risk of sounding provocative, I suspect that this is not something for which Council wants to take credit, but to ignore it completely is insensitive at best.
In addition, The Salvation Army Food Bank reported a 42 per cent increase in demand from 2022 to 2023, and is now helping over 1,000 people monthly.
As if this is not sufficiently heartbreaking, Feed Ontario estimates that 23% of people using food banks in Ontario were employed but still unable to earn enough to make ends meet.
I could go on and talk about other metrics such as the fact that:
38.5% of tenant households in the City spend 30% or more of their income on shelter costs;
the United Way of Bruce Grey’s Utility Assistance Program that helped 751 people in Bruce and Grey stay connected to heat and electricity between July 2024 and June 2025;
and that last winter Safe ‘N Sound welcomed an average of 30 people overnight and between 70 and 80 people each day at its drop-in centre.
And of course, we cannot forget the substantial support provided through the facilities and services provided by Grey County and Brightshores, without which suffering would no doubt increase.
I hate to think what our City would look like if the organizations noted above did not exist.
One could easily argue that these organizations are subsidizing the low incomes paid by some area employers.
I appreciate that poverty is not solely within the purview of City Council, but it seems reasonable to expect them to at least acknowledge the magnitude of the problems facing many of our neighbours in their annual report.
Perhaps next year the mayor’s update could include some additional metrics such as:
The number of meals served by OSHaRE, ideally showing a decline.
The number of people using Safe ‘N Sound, ideally showing a decline.
A commitment by the City to adopt Inclusionary Zoning and a requirement for affordable housing in future developments.
The adoption of a Rental Renovation Licence that includes arrangements for the tenant’s temporary alternate accommodation; monthly rent-gap payments to the tenant if the tenant is returning to the unit; or paying compensation if the tenant has chosen not to return; and overall protection for tenants from bad faith evictions.
The designation of Owen Sound as a Living Wage community.
The opening of a 24/7 public washroom.
Progress towards the development of an evidence-based strategy mapping a path forward for the City.
In conclusion, I return to another quote of Mr. Clark’s:
“Politicians use hyperbole – a need to promote hopefulness and the wonderful things they have done for (to?) us and what they have planned for us — but what we hear from them must be based on what Thomas Homer-Dixon (Commanding Hope, 2020) calls “honest hope.”
Honest hope is based on empirical evidence to “rigorously challenge our theories and our claims about what is true.”
He further states: “If our hope is to be honest, we shouldn’t ignore the facts or deny or avoid well-grounded predictions that a future we might want is impossible...”
David McLeish
Owen Sound
Letters to the Editor do not necessarily reflect the opinions or beliefs of The Owen Sound Current and its editor or publisher.
Thanks for an excellent article!
EVeryone needs training in reading, and appreciating, basic statistics. OUr apparently mayor lacks that tool.